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BDY Prescription Data & Performance


August 20, 2004

Bradley Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

We are increasing our 2005 earnings estimate for Bradley Pharmaceuticals Inc. after last week’s purchase of Bioglan Pharmaceuticals. We are raising our 2005 earnings estimate to $1.91 per share from $1.54 and increasing our 2005 revenue estimate to $171 million from $112 million.

Our 2005 earnings estimate is a penny above Bradley’s guidance, while our revenue estimate is $19 million less than guidance.

Bradley’s key task is defending Adoxa, an antibiotic for acne, while it builds sales of Solaraze, a gel for pre-cancerous skin lesions that has patent protection until 2014. Our model assumes that Adoxa sales begin declining in the third quarter of 2005 because of generic competition. We estimate 2005 Adoxa sales of $31 million. In the second quarter, Adoxa sales were annualizing at about $34 million, according to NDC Health (NDC/$13.75), up 59% from the year-ago quarter.

We assume 2005 Solaraze sales of $15 million. They were annualizing at about $12 million in the second quarter, up 32% from the pace in the year-ago period.

Our price target of $42 per share assumes Bradley shares trade at 22x estimated 2005 earnings of $1.91 per share. Peers trade at 22x 2004 earnings.

                                                                                                                     (© Raymond James, Inc.)

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July 30, 2004

Bradley Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Bradley Pharmaceuticals, Inc. on July 29 reported that second-quarter earnings decreased 11% to $0.26 per share, matching our estimate. The decline reflects increased shares outstanding from a December equity offering. Net income gained 32% from the year-ago period. Sales increased 40% to $23.0 million, or $2.6 million more than we expected.

Excluding $4.3 million of stocking revenue of Keralac, a skin softener launched this month, revenue was $18.7 million, or $1.7 million less than we modeled. Our model did not include Keralac.

Bradley repeated per share earnings guidance for 2004 of $1.23 to $1.25 and introduced a 2005 estimate of $1.90 per share. The 2005 estimate includes Bioglan, a dermatology company that Bradley plans to acquire within two weeks. We plan to add Bioglan to our model after the transaction closes.

For standalone Bradley, we are increasing our 2004 EPS estimate to $1.23 from $1.22. For 2005, we are raising our EPS estimate to $1.54 from $1.38 to reflect the launch of Keralac. Our price target remains $37, or 22 times estimated 2004 earnings per share plus cash of $10 per share.

                                                                                                                     (© Raymond James, Inc.)

June 28, 2004
(Week Ended June 18)

Bradley Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Carmol Prescriptions Fall 39% as Total Company Sales Grow 21%

Dollar sales of all Bradley products grew 21% in the week ended June 18, compared to 20% growth the prior week. We expect Bradley’s 2004 sales to grow 20% to $89.3 million

Total prescriptions for Bradley’s Carmol line of damaged-skin treatments declined 39% in the week ended June 18, compared to a 40% decline the prior week. Dollar sales of the products decreased 30%, compared with a 30% decrease the previous week. We expect Carmol sales to decline 25% in the second quarter of 2004, compared to 1.4% growth in the first quarter.

Risks for Bradley include increased competition. Competitors are introducing copies of one of Bradley's Carmol skin products. Urea drugs similar to Carmol sold by Hi-Tech, River’s Edge, and Stiefel Labs had about 8,570 prescriptions in the week ended June 18, compared to about 8,470 prescriptions the prior week.

The market for urea-based prescription skin softeners continues to grow. Total prescriptions for Carmol and four other urea-based drugs grew 20% in the week ended June 18, compared to 25% growth the prior week.

Sales of new drugs are offsetting increased Carmol competition. Dollar sales of Bradley’s newly launched products Rosula for acne and AnaMantle for hemorrhoids are annualizing at $19.6 million after launching in January 2003, compared with an annualized rate of $19.5 million the prior week. We expect 2004 Rosula and AnaMantle sales of $21.0 million, compared to 2003 sales of $10.4 million.

Bradley launched Zoderm, its new topical acne drug, in early March. NDC Health reported 2,298 Zoderm prescriptions for the week ended June 18, compared to 2,239 the prior week. We expect second quarter Zoderm sales of $1.0 million and 2004 sales of $9.2 million.

                                                                                                                     (© Raymond James, Inc.)

June 21, 2004
(Week Ended June 11)

Bradley Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Carmol Prescriptions Fall 40% as Total Company Sales Grow 20%

Dollar sales of all Bradley products grew 20% in the week ended June 11, compared to 0% growth the prior week. We expect Bradley’s 2004 sales to grow 20% to $89.3 million.

Total prescriptions for Bradley’s Carmol line of damaged-skin treatments declined 40% in the week ended June 11, compared to a 51% decline the prior week. Dollar sales of the products decreased 30%, compared with a 42% decrease the previous week. We expect Carmol sales to decline 25% in the second quarter of 2004, compared to 1.4% growth in the first quarter.

Risks for Bradley include increased competition. Competitors are introducing copies of one of Bradley's Carmol skin products. Urea drugs similar to Carmol sold by Hi-Tech, River’s Edge, and Stiefel Labs had about 8,470 prescriptions in the week ended June 11, compared to about 7,300 prescriptions the prior week.

The market for urea-based prescription skin softeners continues to grow. Total prescriptions for Carmol and four other urea-based drugs grew 25% in the week ended June 11, compared to 5% growth the prior week.

Sales of new drugs are offsetting increased Carmol competition. Dollar sales of Bradley’s newly launched products Rosula for acne and AnaMantle for hemorrhoids are annualizing at $19.5 million after launching in January 2003, compared with an annualized rate of $17.2 million the prior week. We expect 2004 Rosula and AnaMantle sales of $21.0 million, compared to 2003 sales of $10.4 million.

Bradley launched Zoderm, its new topical acne drug, in early March. NDC Health reported 2,239 Zoderm prescriptions for the week ended June 11, compared to 1,770 the prior week. We expect second quarter Zoderm sales of $1.0 million and 2004 sales of $9.2 million.

                                                                                                                     (© Raymond James, Inc.)

June 14, 2004
(Week Ended June 4)

Bradley Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Carmol Prescriptions Fall 51% as Total Company Sales Grow 0%

This week’s results are skewed because they include Memorial Day 2004, while the year-ago period did not include the Memorial Day holiday. Prescription sales data excludes the impact of rebates and discounts, which tend to result in lower net sales reported by drug makers. NDC Health, our data provider, changed its data collection methodology beginning January 10, 2003

                                                                                                                     (© Raymond James, Inc.)

June 7, 2004
Bradley Pharmaceuticals on June 9 said it is acquiring Bioglan Pharmaceuticals for $183 million cash plus inventory costs, a move that could boost Bradley’s earnings by 32% next year. Bioglan is a unit of Quintiles, a privately held drug marketer and contract research company.

Bradley is acquiring Bioglan’s 61-person sales force and a group of marketed dermatology drugs that generated about $55 million in trailing annual sales. Bradley expects to complete the acquisition by the end of July. The transaction would boost Bradley’s sales force by about 40% to about 221 people, a move likely to accelerate sales of the company’s currently marketed products.

Bioglan’s greatest-selling drugs include Adoxa for severe acne and Solaraze for pre-cancerous skin lesions. Gross Adoxa sales, according to NDC Health (NDC/$23.01), were about $32 million last year, up more than double from 2002. Adoxa lacks significant patent protection. Gross Solaraze sales last year were about $12 million, up 92% from 2002. Solaraze benefits from patent protection through 2016.

We assume that a full year of Bioglan operations in 2005 could boost Bradley’s earnings by about $0.44 per share, or about 32% above our target of $1.38. Our 2004 and 2005 estimates are unchanged. We are likely to revise our earnings estimates once the Bioglan acquisition closes later this summer. We repeat a Strong Buy rating. Our price target of $37 assumes Bradley trades at 23 times estimated 2004 earnings of $1.22 per share plus cash of about $10 per share

                                                                                                                     (© Raymond James, Inc.)

June 7, 2004
(Week Ended May 28)

Bradley Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Carmol Prescriptions Fall 31% as Total Company Sales Grow 37%

Dollar sales of all Bradley products grew 37% in the week ended May 28, compared to 19% growth the prior week. We expect Bradley’s 2004 sales to grow 20% to $89.3 million.

Total prescriptions for Bradley’s Carmol line of damaged-skin treatments declined 31% in the week ended May 28, compared to a 42% decline the prior week. Dollar sales of the products decreased 19%, compared with a 31% decrease the previous week. We expect Carmol sales to decline 25% in the second quarter of 2004, compared to 1.4% growth in the first quarter.

Risks for Bradley include increased competition. Competitors are introducing copies of one of Bradley's Carmol skin products. Urea drugs similar to Carmol sold by Hi-Tech, River’s Edge, and Stiefel Labs had about 8,200 prescriptions in the week ended May 28, compared to about 8,600 prescriptions the prior week.

The market for urea-based prescription skin softeners continues to grow. Total prescriptions for Carmol and four other urea-based drugs grew 49% in the week ended May 28, compared to 32% growth the prior week.

Sales of new drugs are offsetting increased Carmol competition. Dollar sales of Bradley’s newly launched products Rosula for acne and AnaMantle for hemorrhoids are annualizing at $20.1 million after launching in January 2003, compared with an annualized rate of $19.6 million the prior week. We expect 2004 Rosula and AnaMantle sales of $21.0 million, compared to 2003 sales of $10.4 million.

Bradley launched Zoderm, its new topical acne drug, in early March. NDC Health reported 2,136 Zoderm prescriptions for the week ended May 28, compared to 1,919 the prior week. We expect second quarter Zoderm sales of $1.0 million and 2004 sales of $9.2 million.

                                                                                                                     (© Raymond James, Inc.)


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June 1, 2004
(Week Ended May 21)

Bradley Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Carmol Prescriptions Fall 42% as Total Company Sales Grow 19%

Dollar sales of all Bradley products grew 19% in the week ended May 21, compared to 15% growth the prior week. We expect Bradley’s 2004 sales to grow 20% to $89.3 million.

Total prescriptions for Bradley’s Carmol line of damaged-skin treatments declined 42% in the week ended May 21, compared to a 41% decline the prior week. Dollar sales of the products decreased 31%, compared with a 32% decrease the previous week. We expect Carmol sales to decline 25% in the second quarter of 2004, compared to 1.4% growth in the first quarter.

Risks for Bradley include increased competition. Competitors are introducing copies of one of Bradley's Carmol skin products. Urea drugs similar to Carmol sold by Hi-Tech, River’s Edge, and Stiefel Labs had about 8,600 prescriptions in the week ended May 21, compared to about 8,200 prescriptions the prior week.

The market for urea-based prescription skin softeners continues to grow. Total prescriptions for Carmol and four other urea-based drugs grew 32% in the week ended May 21, compared to 32% growth the prior week.

Sales of new drugs are offsetting increased Carmol competition. Dollar sales of Bradley’s newly launched products Rosula for acne and AnaMantle for hemorrhoids are annualizing at $19.6 million after launching in January 2003, compared with an annualized rate of $18.9 million the prior week. We expect 2004 Rosula and AnaMantle sales of $21.0 million, compared to 2003 sales of $10.4 million.

Bradley launched Zoderm, its new topical acne drug, in early March. NDC Health reported 1,919 Zoderm prescriptions for the week ended May 21, compared to 1,544 the prior week. We expect second quarter Zoderm sales of $1.0 million and 2004 sales of $9.2 million.

                                                                                                                     (© Raymond James, Inc.)

May 24, 2004
(Week Ended May 14)

Bradley Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Carmol Prescriptions Fall 41% as Total Company Sales Grow 15%

Dollar sales of all Bradley products grew 15% in the week ended May 14, compared to 14% growth the prior week. We expect Bradley’s 2004 sales to grow 20% to $89.3 million.

Total prescriptions for Bradley’s Carmol line of damaged-skin treatments declined 41% in the week ended May 14, compared to a 38% decline the prior week. Dollar sales of the products decreased 32%, compared with a 31% decrease the previous week. We expect Carmol sales to decline 25% in the second quarter of 2004, compared to 1.4% growth in the first quarter.

Risks for Bradley include increased competition. Competitors are introducing copies of one of Bradley's Carmol skin products. Urea drugs similar to Carmol sold by Hi-Tech, River’s Edge, and Stiefel Labs had about 8,200 prescriptions in the week ended May 14, compared to about 8,100 prescriptions the prior week.

The market for urea-based prescription skin softeners continues to grow. Total prescriptions for Carmol and four other urea-based drugs grew 32% in the week ended May 14, compared to 33% growth the prior week. Sales of new drugs are offsetting increased Carmol competition. Dollar sales of Bradley’s newly launched products Rosula for acne and AnaMantle for hemorrhoids are annualizing at $18.9 million after launching in January 2003, compared with an annualized rate of $18.7 million the prior week. We expect 2004 Rosula and AnaMantle sales of $21.0 million, compared to 2003 sales of $10.4 million.

Bradley launched Zoderm, its new topical acne drug, in early March. NDC Health reported 1,544 Zoderm prescriptions for the week ended May 14, compared to 1,393 the prior week. We expect second quarter Zoderm sales of $1.0 million and 2004 sales of $9.2 million.

                                                                                                                     (© Raymond James, Inc.)

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